feat(ui): slop-band calibration card on the analytics dashboard (#2196)

[andriypolanski]

Closes #2196

Summary

Adds a read-only Slop-band calibration card to /app/analytics showing predicted slop band vs realized merge/close outcomes from the stats feed. Extends StatsPayload and the operator dashboard with fleet-wide slopBandCalibration aggregates (bands only — never raw slop scores).

Part of #1967.

Changes

Area	Change
src/review/stats.ts	SlopOutcomeCalibration on StatsPayload; computeSlopBandCalibrationAggregate()
src/services/operator-dashboard.ts	Surface slopBandCalibration on operator dashboard payload
apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts	UI types + band label / merge-rate formatters
apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.tsx	Per-band Stat rows + MiniSparkbar outcome split
apps/gittensory-ui/src/routes/app.analytics.tsx	Wire card beside gate precision / cycle time
Tests	slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx, stats.test.ts, operator-dashboard.test.ts

UI Evidence

Required before opening the PR — upload screenshots via GitHub drag-and-drop (do not commit images):

Page / Feature	Before	After
/app/analytics

Test plan

• SlopBandCalibrationCard — all bands present
• SlopBandCalibrationCard — one empty band (em dash)
• SlopBandCalibrationCard — no-data empty state + discriminates ternary arms
• computeSlopBandCalibrationAggregate — seeded PR bands + fail-safe empty
• Operator dashboard payload includes empty slopBandCalibration
• npm run ui:test — slop-band-calibration-card.test.tsx (5/5)
• npm run ui:typecheck
• npm run test:unit -- test/unit/stats.test.ts test/unit/operator-dashboard.test.ts (51/51)
• Manual: sign in as operator, open /app/analytics, confirm card renders with band labels only
• Before/after screenshots uploaded to PR (required — issue is visual)

Notes

• Issue is labeled visual (owner-led). Confirm eligibility before opening a contributor PR.
• Public/private boundary: card shows band labels, counts, and merge rates only — no raw slopRisk or credibility scores.
• Card uses the same operator-dashboard fetch path as GatePrecisionCard and CycleTimeCard.

[superagent-security]

Superagent didn't find any vulnerabilities or security issues in this PR.

[loopover-orb]

Warning

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨

⏸️ Gittensory review result - manual review recommended

_{Review updated: 2026-07-10 20:44:17 UTC}

8 files · 1 AI reviewer · no blockers · readiness 100/100 · CI green · dirty

⏸️ Suggested Action - Manual Review

• Touches a guarded path — held for manual review: This PR changes guardrail-protected path(s): src/services/operator-dashboard.ts (matched src/services/**).

Review summary
Adds a fully-wired, read-only slop-band calibration card: schema on StatsPayload, an operator-dashboard aggregate, and a UI card gated behind a hasSamples/discriminates tri-state. Wiring is complete end-to-end (stats.ts → operator-dashboard.ts → app.analytics.tsx, both the Promise.all fetch and the returned payload object are updated in each file), and the fail-safe empty-aggregate pattern mirrors the existing cycle-time aggregate exactly, including matching test coverage for the D1-down and NaN-days paths. The one real design smell is that computeSlopBandCalibrationAggregate loads every fleet PR via listAllPullRequests and filters the date window in JS, unlike every sibling aggregate in this file which pushes the window into SQL.

Nits — 6 non-blocking

• src/review/stats.ts:308-320 — computeSlopBandCalibrationAggregate pulls the whole fleet's PR history via listAllPullRequests(env) and filters to the window in JS, while every neighboring aggregate (computeCycleTimeAggregate, computeStats' decision/reversal queries) pushes the date filter into SQL; as PR history grows this becomes the most expensive call in the stats/operator-dashboard Promise.all — worth a WHERE-bounded repository query instead.
• apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card.tsx:12-26 — the statusTone/statusLabel derivation is inlined in the component instead of following the formatSlopBandLabel/formatMergeRate pattern already established in slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts; pulling it into the model file would keep the component thin and testable without a DOM render.
• apps/gittensory-ui/src/components/site/app-panels/slop-band-calibration-card-model.ts:3 — SlopBand ('clean'|'low'|'elevated'|'high') is a hand-maintained UI mirror of the backend SlopOutcomeCalibration bands with no shared source of truth; if the backend adds/renames a band this silently produces an unlabeled row instead of a type error.
• src/review/stats.ts:326-327 — the 730/90/86_400_000 magic numbers duplicate the same literals already used verbatim in computeCycleTimeAggregate a few lines up; a shared MAX_STATS_WINDOW_DAYS constant would remove the duplication now that there are two copies.
• Confirm src/services/outcome-calibration.ts's buildSlopOutcomeCalibration only aggregates band-level counts and never threads a raw slopRisk value through to SlopOutcomeCalibration — the PR's core privacy claim ('bands only — never raw slop scores') lives entirely in that file, which isn't part of this diff.
• Touches a guarded path — held for manual review — A maintainer must review and merge this change.

Signal	Result	Evidence
Code review	✅ No blockers	1 reviewer
Linked issue	✅ Linked	#2196
Related work	✅ No active overlap found	No same-issue or scoped active PR overlap found.
Change scope	✅ 20/20	Low review scope from cached public metadata (1 linked issue).
Validation posture	✅ 25/25	PR body includes validation/test evidence.
Contributor workload	✅ 10/10	Author activity: 141 registered-repo PR(s), 90 merged, 25 issue(s).
Contributor context	✅ Confirmed Gittensor contributor	andriypolanski; Gittensor profile; 141 PR(s), 25 issue(s).
Gate result	⚠️ Not blocking	Advisory; not blocking this PR.

Review context

• Author: andriypolanski
• Role context: outside_contributor
• Public audience mode: oss maintainer
• Lane context: Repository is configured for direct PR review.
• Public profile languages: not available
• Official Gittensor activity: 141 PR(s), 25 issue(s).
• PR-specific overlap: none found.

Contributor next steps

• Keep the PR focused and include validation evidence before maintainer review.

Signal definitions

• Related work = same linked issue, overlapping active PRs, or title/path similarity.
• Change scope = cached public metadata such as size labels, draft state, and review-burden hints.
• Validation posture = whether the PR provides enough public validation/test evidence for maintainer review.
• Contributor workload = public contributor activity and cleanup pressure, not a repo-wide quality failure.
• Contributor context = public GitHub/Gittensor identity context; non-Gittensor status is not a blocker.

Visual preview

Route	Viewport	Before (production)	After (this PR's preview)	Diff
/app/analytics	desktop			—
/app/analytics	mobile			—

Click any thumbnail to open the full-size screenshot. Before = production · After = this PR's preview deploy.

_{🟩 Safe / merged · 🟦 Advisory · 🟨 Held for review · 🟥 Blocked / closed}

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[codecov]

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 94.14%. Comparing base (96c158f) to head (8b9ec1e).
⚠️ Report is 2 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files

@@           Coverage Diff           @@
##             main    #4719   +/-   ##
=======================================
  Coverage   94.14%   94.14%           
=======================================
  Files         437      437           
  Lines       38561    38574   +13     
  Branches    14058    14063    +5     
=======================================
+ Hits        36304    36317   +13     
  Misses       1599     1599           
  Partials      658      658           

Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
src/review/stats.ts	99.18% <100.00%> (+0.09%)	⬆️
src/services/operator-dashboard.ts	100.00% <ø> (ø)

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[loopover-orb]

Gittensory is closing this pull request on the maintainer's behalf (conflicts with the base branch — resolve and open a fresh PR). This is an automated maintenance action — to pursue this change, please open a new pull request with the issues resolved. Closed PRs may be analyzed later to improve review accuracy, but they are not automatically reopened or re-reviewed.