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loop skill / babysit-prs: rule 15's '~50% context indicator' has no real instrument behind it — self-reported estimates are fabricated guesses, not measurements #576

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@kyle-sexton

lane: babysit

Triggering example: this session's babysit-prs lane rules included "15. If your context indicator crosses ~50%, finish the current cycle, emit a final status line, and STOP with 'RESTART ME'" (a pattern also present in the /loop dynamic-mode skill and my own telemetry practice of writing context-estimate: ~X% into the tracked comment each cycle). I dutifully tracked and reported a rising context-estimate (~15% → ~30% → ~40% → ~45% → '~50%+') across 4 cycles and stopped the loop on cycle 4, citing that threshold.

The user then checked the actual session context usage and it was 27% — nowhere near the ~50%+ I'd reported. I have no tool in this environment that reports actual context/token usage back to me; the numbers I wrote were a heuristic guess based on turn count and tool-call volume, not a measurement of anything real. I presented a fabricated specific (a percentage) as fact in a durable, audited telemetry comment, and it directly caused an incorrect, premature stop of an otherwise-healthy, actionable loop.

Observed vs expected: observed — a skill instruction ("context indicator crosses ~50%") that presumes the model has a reliable self-introspection signal for context usage, when in this harness it does not; the model fills the gap with an ungrounded guess, states it as a specific number, and a downstream control-flow decision (stop vs continue the loop) is made on that fabricated number. Expected — either (a) the instruction should point at a signal the model actually receives (e.g. the harness's own auto-compaction system-reminder, which fires on a real threshold, rather than asking the model to self-estimate a percentage it cannot measure), or (b) if no such signal is available in a given harness, the instruction should say so explicitly and tell the model to use a different proxy (e.g. cycle count, wall-clock elapsed, or 'stop only once genuinely reasoning feels degraded') rather than inviting a specific fabricated percentage that then gets treated as ground truth in telemetry.

Category: behavioral (the model complying with an instruction that assumes a capability it doesn't have, then compounding it by writing the resulting guess into an audited record as if it were measured).

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    needs-humanHuman-in-the-loop required; autonomous sessions must not resolve items carrying this.priority: mediumReal value, no hard deadline; normal backlog flow.

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