fix(dev-lead): repair auto-rebase conflict detection and applied-rate signal

prompts/dev-lead/rebase.md

@@ -9,9 +9,11 @@ You are the dev-lead agent for the `${REPO}` repository. A pull request has merg
 - **Head Branch:** `${HEAD_REF}`
 - **Base Branch:** `${BASE_REF}`
 
-## Conflicting Files
+## Conflicting Files (advisory)
 
-The following files have merge conflicts:
+These files are *likely* to conflict — best-effort detection that may be empty,
+incomplete, or stale. Treat it as a hint, not an authoritative set; resolve
+whatever `git rebase` actually reports as conflicted.
 
 ```
 ${CONFLICTING_FILES}
@@ -37,7 +39,7 @@ Resolve the merge conflicts and rebase the branch onto `${BASE_REF}`:
 - Never silently drop code from either side — if both sides add code to the same location, merge them intelligently
 - Do not squash or otherwise rewrite the PR commit history beyond rebasing
 - If a conflict cannot be resolved safely, abort the rebase and comment on the PR explaining why
-- Only modify the conflicting files listed above — do not touch other files during conflict resolution
+- Limit edits to files that `git rebase` actually flags as conflicted. The advisory list above is only a hint — never skip a real conflict just because its file is not listed, and do not edit files that are not genuinely in conflict
 
 ## Output Format
 

scripts/dev-lead-fix-reviews.sh

@@ -657,6 +657,21 @@ commit_and_push() {
   return 0
 }
 
+# detect_conflicting_paths <base_ref> — list paths that conflict when merging
+# origin/<base_ref> into the current HEAD, one per line. Uses a trial merge
+# (immediately aborted) because it is robust across git versions: the former
+# `git merge-tree <base> HEAD <base>` 3-arg form prints a "changed in both"
+# section header whose last field is the literal word "both" (the filename is on
+# the indented our/their lines), so `awk '{print $NF}'` produced a bogus "both"
+# path that was fed to the rebase prompt. Leaves the worktree clean.
+detect_conflicting_paths() {
+  local base="$1"
+  [[ -z "$base" ]] && return 0
+  git merge --no-commit --no-ff "origin/${base}" >/dev/null 2>&1 || true
+  git diff --name-only --diff-filter=U || true
+  git merge --abort >/dev/null 2>&1 || true
+}
+
 # expire_stale_terminal_markers: deletes any existing terminal comments (applied,
 # no-changes, or failed) for this SHA+intent before a hard-blocker retry marker is
 # posted. Without this, the retry cron sees a stale terminal and skips re-dispatch
@@ -1053,16 +1068,28 @@ case "$INTENT_TYPE" in
       exit 1
     fi
     git fetch origin "$BASE_REF"
-    CONFLICTING_FILES=$(git merge-tree "$(git merge-base HEAD "origin/${BASE_REF}")" HEAD "origin/${BASE_REF}" 2>/dev/null | grep "^changed in both" | awk '{print $NF}' || true)
+    CONFLICTING_FILES=$(detect_conflicting_paths "$BASE_REF")
     export CONFLICTING_FILES
     rc=0
     build_and_run "rebase" || rc=$?
     [ "$rc" -eq 2 ] && handle_rate_limit "rebase"
     if [ "$rc" -eq 0 ]; then
       if commit_and_push "rebase"; then
+        # Engine left commits/changes for the script to push — resolution applied.
         post_reviews_terminal "rebase" "applied" "Rebase completed and pushed."
       else
-        post_no_changes "rebase"
+        # The rebase prompt has the engine force-push the rebased branch itself
+        # (rebase.md step 6), so commit_and_push finds nothing to push on success.
+        # Relying on it alone recorded EVERY successful rebase as "no-changes"
+        # (0% applied — discussion #735 telemetry). Distinguish a real resolution
+        # (no conflicts remain against the base) from an abort/no-op (conflicts
+        # persist) by re-checking the base conflict state after the run.
+        git fetch origin "$BASE_REF" >/dev/null 2>&1 || true
+        if [ -z "$(detect_conflicting_paths "$BASE_REF")" ]; then
+          post_reviews_terminal "rebase" "applied" "Rebase completed and pushed."
+        else
+          post_no_changes "rebase"
+        fi
       fi
     fi
     exit "$rc"