fix(engine): scope reward-risk open-PR count to the repo, not the portfolio (#8865)

.release-please-manifest.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "packages/loopover-mcp": "3.14.1",
-  "packages/loopover-engine": "3.14.1",
+  "packages/loopover-engine": "3.15.0",
   "packages/loopover-miner": "3.14.1",
   "packages/loopover-ui-kit": "1.2.0"
 }

packages/loopover-engine/src/reward-risk.ts

@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@ export function buildRepoRewardRisk(args: {
   const labels = bestFitLabels(args.repo);
   const competitionFactor = opportunityCompetitionFactor(collisions.summary.highRiskCount, queueHealth.signals.openPullRequests);
   const freshnessFactor = opportunityFreshnessFactor(args.issues, args.nowMs ?? Date.now());
-  const currentOpenPrCount = nonNegative(args.outcomeHistory.totals.openPullRequests);
+  const currentOpenPrCount = nonNegative(repoOutcome?.openPullRequests ?? args.outcomeHistory.totals.openPullRequests);
   const currentOpenIssueCount = nonNegative(repoOutcome?.openIssues ?? args.outcomeHistory.totals.openIssues);
   /* v8 ignore next -- Credibility fallback order protects sparse private snapshots; behavior is covered through scoring profile tests. */
   const credibility = repoOutcome?.credibility && repoOutcome.credibility > 0 ? repoOutcome.credibility : args.scoringProfile?.evidence.credibilityAssumption ?? args.outcomeHistory.totals.credibility ?? 0.8;

test/unit/reward-risk-freshness.test.ts

@@ -172,6 +172,46 @@ describe("reward-risk freshness parity with loopover-engine", () => {
     // 2 days old -> round4(exp(-2/20)) -- a concrete pin so a formula drift can't slip through as "still equal".
     expect(first.rewardUpside.opportunityFactors.freshnessFactor).toBe(0.9048);
   });
+
+  it("scopes a repo's open-PR risk count to that repo, not the contributor's portfolio-wide total (#8865)", () => {
+    const repoA = repo("owner/repo-a");
+    const repoB = repo("owner/repo-b");
+    // dev has 2 open PRs in repoA and 3 in repoB: the portfolio-wide total is 5, but repoA's own is 2.
+    const pullRequests = [
+      pr(repoA.fullName, 101, "A-1"),
+      pr(repoA.fullName, 102, "A-2"),
+      pr(repoB.fullName, 201, "B-1"),
+      pr(repoB.fullName, 202, "B-2"),
+      pr(repoB.fullName, 203, "B-3"),
+    ];
+    const twoRepoHistory = buildContributorOutcomeHistory({
+      login: "dev",
+      profile,
+      repositories: [repoA, repoB],
+      pullRequests,
+      issues: [],
+      repoStats: [],
+    });
+    // Guard the fixture's own premise so the assertion below can't pass for the wrong reason.
+    expect(twoRepoHistory.totals.openPullRequests).toBe(5);
+    expect(twoRepoHistory.repoOutcomes.find((outcome) => outcome.repoFullName === repoA.fullName)?.openPullRequests).toBe(2);
+
+    const report = buildRepoRewardRisk({
+      login: "dev",
+      repo: repoA,
+      repoFullName: repoA.fullName,
+      profile,
+      outcomeHistory: twoRepoHistory,
+      scoringSnapshot: scoringSnapshot(),
+      issues: [],
+      pullRequests: [],
+      nowMs: Date.parse("2026-07-10T00:00:00.000Z"),
+    });
+
+    // Before the fix currentOpenPrCount read the portfolio-wide total (5); it must reflect repoA's own
+    // open-PR count (2), matching how the same report already scopes open issues and offered actions.
+    expect(report.riskBreakdown.openPullRequests).toBe(2);
+  });
 });
 
 describe("bestFitLabels keyword anchoring", () => {