feat(review): detect successor-superseded reversals for the one-shot close culture

src/review/outcomes-wire.ts

@@ -23,7 +23,8 @@
 // applyAutoTune engages nothing → isHoldOnly is false → the merge path is unchanged. The breaker only engages
 // once a repo's merge precision actually drops below the floor over a real sample.
 
-import { recordAuditEvent } from "../db/repositories";
+import { getPullRequest, listPullRequestFiles, recordAuditEvent } from "../db/repositories";
+import { evaluateSuccessorMatch, REVERSAL_SUPERSEDED_EVENT_TYPE, SUPERSEDED_LOOKBACK_MS } from "./reversal-superseded";
 import { createSignalStore } from "./signal-tracking-wire";
 import { AI_JUDGMENT_BLOCKER_CODES } from "../rules/advisory";
 import { tryEnqueueDecisionPackRebuild } from "../services/decision-pack";
@@ -675,6 +676,10 @@ export async function recordReversalSignals(
       await recordConfiguredGateBlockerOverrides(env, targetId).catch(() => undefined); // #8104
       await recordLinkedIssueScopeMismatchOverride(env, targetId).catch(() => undefined); // #8101
     }
+    // #8166: the one-shot culture's reversal shape — this merge may supersede a bot-CLOSED sibling PR
+    // (same linked issue, or same author reworking the same files). Best-effort, like every signal here.
+    await recordSupersededReversals(env, repoFullName, pr.number, payload.pull_request?.user?.login ?? null).catch(() => undefined);
+
     const reverted = parseRevertedPrNumber(pr.body);
     if (!reverted) return;
     const revertedTargetKey = reviewAuditTargetId(repoFullName, reverted);
@@ -926,3 +931,77 @@ export async function runSelfTuneBreaker(env: Env): Promise<void> {
     );
   }
 }
+
+/**
+ * #8166: scan the window for bot-CLOSED PRs this merge supersedes, and record the culture-correct reversal
+ * signal for each match: a `reversal_superseded` row in BOTH stores (like its reopen/revert siblings, with
+ * the matched heuristics in the audit metadata so borderline calls stay reviewable), plus the SAME per-rule
+ * "the firing was wrong" overrides the reopen path records (#8101/#8104) — which is what finally feeds the
+ * calibration corpus its positive class. Conservative + idempotent: evaluateSuccessorMatch's own bar
+ * decides, a target with an existing superseded row is never re-recorded, and every step fails safe.
+ */
+export async function recordSupersededReversals(
+  env: Env,
+  repoFullName: string,
+  mergedPrNumber: number,
+  mergedAuthorLogin: string | null,
+): Promise<void> {
+  try {
+    const project = repoFullName.slice(0, 200);
+    const mergedRecord = await getPullRequest(env, repoFullName, mergedPrNumber);
+    if (!mergedRecord) return;
+    const mergedFiles = (await listPullRequestFiles(env, repoFullName, mergedPrNumber)).map((file) => file.path);
+    const merged = {
+      authorLogin: mergedAuthorLogin ?? mergedRecord.authorLogin,
+      linkedIssues: mergedRecord.linkedIssues,
+      files: mergedFiles,
+    };
+
+    const sinceIso = new Date(Date.now() - SUPERSEDED_LOOKBACK_MS).toISOString();
+    const candidates = await env.DB.prepare(
+      // Same bot-close definition as lastBotActionWasClose: real (non-dry-run) executed closes only.
+      `SELECT DISTINCT target_key FROM audit_events
+        WHERE event_type = 'agent.action.close' AND outcome IN ('success', 'completed')
+          AND COALESCE(json_extract(metadata_json, '$.mode'), 'live') <> 'dry_run'
+          AND target_key LIKE ? AND created_at >= ?`,
+    )
+      .bind(`${project}#%`, sinceIso)
+      .all<{ target_key: string }>();
+
+    for (const row of candidates.results ?? []) {
+      const targetKey = row.target_key;
+      const closedNumber = Number(targetKey.slice(targetKey.lastIndexOf("#") + 1));
+      if (!Number.isFinite(closedNumber) || closedNumber === mergedPrNumber) continue;
+      // Idempotent per closed target: one superseded record ever, however many successors merge later.
+      const already = await env.DB.prepare("SELECT 1 AS x FROM audit_events WHERE event_type = ? AND target_key = ? LIMIT 1")
+        .bind(REVERSAL_SUPERSEDED_EVENT_TYPE, targetKey)
+        .first<{ x: number }>();
+      if (already) continue;
+
+      const closedRecord = await getPullRequest(env, repoFullName, closedNumber);
+      if (!closedRecord) continue;
+      const closedFiles = (await listPullRequestFiles(env, repoFullName, closedNumber)).map((file) => file.path);
+      const heuristics = evaluateSuccessorMatch(merged, {
+        authorLogin: closedRecord.authorLogin,
+        linkedIssues: closedRecord.linkedIssues,
+        files: closedFiles,
+      });
+      if (!heuristics) continue;
+
+      const summary = `Bot-closed PR #${closedNumber} superseded by merged PR #${mergedPrNumber}.`;
+      await appendReviewAudit(env, { project, targetId: targetKey, eventType: REVERSAL_SUPERSEDED_EVENT_TYPE, summary });
+      await recordAuditEvent(env, {
+        eventType: REVERSAL_SUPERSEDED_EVENT_TYPE,
+        actor: mergedAuthorLogin,
+        targetKey,
+        outcome: "completed",
+        detail: summary,
+        metadata: { repoFullName, pullNumber: closedNumber, supersededBy: mergedPrNumber, heuristics },
+      }).catch(() => undefined);
+      await recordConfiguredGateBlockerOverrides(env, targetKey).catch(() => undefined); // #8104
+      await recordLinkedIssueScopeMismatchOverride(env, targetKey).catch(() => undefined); // #8101
+    }
+  } catch (error) {
+    console.warn(JSON.stringify({ event: "reversal_superseded_error", repo: repoFullName, message: errorMessage(error).slice(0, 200) }));
+  }
+}

src/review/public-stats.ts

@@ -310,7 +310,7 @@ export async function getPublicStats(
          SELECT substr(target_key, 1, instr(target_key, '#') - 1) AS project,
                 CAST(substr(target_key, instr(target_key, '#') + 1) AS INTEGER) AS pr_number
            FROM audit_events
-          WHERE event_type IN ('reversal_reopened', 'reversal_reverted')
+          WHERE event_type IN ('reversal_reopened', 'reversal_reverted', 'reversal_superseded')
             AND outcome = 'completed' AND instr(target_key, '#') > 0
        ) ev
         WHERE LOWER(ev.project) IN (${inList})

src/review/reversal-superseded.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+// Successor-based reversal heuristics (#8166, feeds epic #8082's positive class). This gate's own one-shot
+// design tells a wronged contributor "recovery = open a fresh PR", so the reopen-shaped reversal signal
+// (`reversal_reopened`) is structurally near-impossible here — verified in production: zero reversal events
+// ever, zero bot-closed PRs later merged. The culture's ACTUAL "the bot was wrong" shape is: bot CLOSES
+// PR #N, and a SUCCESSOR PR — same linked issue, or same author reworking the same files — later MERGES.
+//
+// PURE MODULE: the match decision only. Conservative by design (the issue's own bar): a false "the bot was
+// wrong" poisons calibration worse than a miss, so a match requires either a shared linked issue (the
+// strongest intent signal this repo has — the same set-intersection `duplicate_pr_risk` trusts) or the same
+// author reworking a majority of the closed PR's files. Borderline records NOTHING. The wire
+// (outcomes-wire.ts's recordSupersededReversals) supplies the data and writes the events.
+
+export const REVERSAL_SUPERSEDED_EVENT_TYPE = "reversal_superseded";
+
+/** A successor must re-touch at least this fraction of the CLOSED PR's files for the same-author path. */
+export const SUPERSEDED_FILE_OVERLAP_MIN = 0.5;
+
+/** How far back a merge scans for bot-closed PRs it might supersede. Mirrors the calibration lookbacks'
+ *  order of magnitude — a months-later rework is a new effort, not a supersession signal. */
+export const SUPERSEDED_LOOKBACK_MS = 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+
+export type SupersededSide = {
+  authorLogin: string | null | undefined;
+  linkedIssues: readonly number[];
+  files: readonly string[];
+};
+
+export type SupersededHeuristics = {
+  sameLinkedIssue: boolean;
+  sameAuthorFileOverlap: boolean;
+  /** |shared files| / |closed PR's files|; null when the closed PR has no recorded files. */
+  fileOverlapRatio: number | null;
+};
+
+/**
+ * Decide whether `merged` supersedes the bot-closed `closed` PR. Returns the matched heuristics (for the
+ * audit trail — every recorded event carries WHY it matched) or null when neither conservative path holds:
+ *   • sameLinkedIssue — both sides link at least one common issue number;
+ *   • sameAuthorFileOverlap — same author (case-insensitive; unknown authors never match) AND the merged PR
+ *     re-touches ≥ {@link SUPERSEDED_FILE_OVERLAP_MIN} of the closed PR's recorded files (a closed PR with
+ *     no recorded files can never match this path — fail-open to a miss, never a guess).
+ * PURE and deterministic.
+ */
+export function evaluateSuccessorMatch(merged: SupersededSide, closed: SupersededSide): SupersededHeuristics | null {
+  const sameLinkedIssue = closed.linkedIssues.length > 0 && closed.linkedIssues.some((issue) => merged.linkedIssues.includes(issue));
+
+  const mergedAuthor = merged.authorLogin?.trim().toLowerCase() ?? "";
+  const closedAuthor = closed.authorLogin?.trim().toLowerCase() ?? "";
+  const sameAuthor = mergedAuthor !== "" && mergedAuthor === closedAuthor;
+
+  let fileOverlapRatio: number | null = null;
+  if (closed.files.length > 0) {
+    const mergedFiles = new Set(merged.files);
+    const shared = closed.files.filter((file) => mergedFiles.has(file)).length;
+    fileOverlapRatio = shared / closed.files.length;
+  }
+  const sameAuthorFileOverlap = sameAuthor && fileOverlapRatio !== null && fileOverlapRatio >= SUPERSEDED_FILE_OVERLAP_MIN;
+
+  if (!sameLinkedIssue && !sameAuthorFileOverlap) return null;
+  return { sameLinkedIssue, sameAuthorFileOverlap, fileOverlapRatio };
+}

src/services/public-accuracy-trend.ts

@@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ async function loadReversalDayRows(env: Env, projects: string[], sinceIso: strin
       ) orig
       JOIN (
         SELECT DISTINCT target_key FROM audit_events
-         WHERE event_type IN ('reversal_reopened', 'reversal_reverted') AND outcome = 'completed'
+         WHERE event_type IN ('reversal_reopened', 'reversal_reverted', 'reversal_superseded') AND outcome = 'completed'
       ) rev ON rev.target_key = orig.target_key
       WHERE LOWER(orig.project) IN (${inList})
       GROUP BY day`,