feat(mcp): register loopover_get_outcome_calibration as a local stdio tool

.github/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -1132,6 +1132,17 @@ jobs:
   # vitest.config.ts's own comment describes; Codecov's patch gate (changed-lines only) doesn't cover a
   # whole-repo regression outside the diff, so this is what actually restores that backstop for CI, using
   # vitest's own --mergeReports against each shard's uploaded blob report.
+  #
+  # That "merged = whole-suite" assumption breaks when scoped test selection (#ci-scoped-test-selection,
+  # see the shard job's own SCOPED_TEST_SELECTION comment above) was active for this run: all 3 shards then
+  # ran the SAME narrow `--changed=origin/main` subset (not a partition of the ~2,900-test full suite), so
+  # merging them still only reconstructs that narrow slice's coverage -- correctly high for the files it
+  # touches, but the threshold judges the WHOLE include set, so it false-fails even a fully-tested scoped
+  # PR (confirmed live: a 3-file packages/loopover-mcp-only PR with 100% coverage on its own two touched
+  # test files still reported 0%/80% and failed). This job disables the threshold in that same case, via
+  # the identical SCOPED_TEST_SELECTION condition -- Codecov's patch gate already enforces real per-line
+  # coverage on a scoped PR's actual diff regardless, so nothing is lost by skipping the whole-suite
+  # backstop specifically when it can't see the whole suite.
   validate-tests-merge:
     name: validate-tests-merge
     needs: [changes, validate-tests]
@@ -1160,6 +1171,12 @@ jobs:
           path: all-blob-reports
           merge-multiple: true
       - name: Merge shard coverage and check the global threshold
+        env:
+          # Mirrors validate-tests' own SCOPED_TEST_SELECTION condition exactly (this job already has
+          # `needs.changes` available). vitest.config.ts checks this var for TRUTHINESS, not `=== 'true'`,
+          # so the false branch must be an empty string (falsy), not the literal string "false" (which JS
+          # treats as truthy) -- that's why this is a `&& 'true' || ''` expression, not a bare boolean.
+          COVERAGE_NO_THRESHOLDS: ${{ (github.event_name == 'pull_request' && vars.SCOPED_TEST_SELECTION_ENABLED != 'false' && needs.changes.outputs.rees != 'true' && needs.changes.outputs.controlPlane != 'true' && needs.changes.outputs.engine != 'true' && needs.changes.outputs.backendConfig != 'true' && (needs.changes.outputs.backend == 'true' || needs.changes.outputs.miner == 'true' || needs.changes.outputs.mcp == 'true' || needs.changes.outputs.discoveryIndex == 'true')) && 'true' || '' }}
         run: npx vitest run --coverage --mergeReports=all-blob-reports
 
   # Diff-scoped security gate: fails only on vulnerabilities this PR introduces.

packages/loopover-mcp/bin/loopover-mcp.ts

@@ -909,6 +909,12 @@ const setActionAutonomyShape = {
   level: z.enum(MAINTAIN_AUTONOMY_LEVELS),
 };
 
+const outcomeCalibrationShape = {
+  owner: z.string().min(1),
+  repo: z.string().min(1),
+  windowDays: z.number().int().positive().optional(),
+};
+
 const gatePrecisionShape = {
   owner: z.string().min(1),
   repo: z.string().min(1),
@@ -1286,6 +1292,11 @@ const STDIO_TOOL_DESCRIPTORS = [
     category: "agent",
     description: "Set the autonomy level for one action class via a read-merge-write, so the other classes are left untouched. Same as `loopover-mcp maintain set-level <action> <level>`. Maintainer access required.",
   },
+  {
+    name: "loopover_get_outcome_calibration",
+    category: "maintainer",
+    description: "Return slop-band and recommendation outcome calibration for a repo: whether higher-slop bands merge less often and how agent recommendations are panning out. Optionally bounded by windowDays. Maintainer-authenticated; measurement only.",
+  },
   {
     name: "loopover_get_gate_precision",
     category: "maintainer",
@@ -2583,6 +2594,21 @@ registerStdioTool(
   },
 );
 
+registerStdioTool(
+  "loopover_get_outcome_calibration",
+  {
+    description: stdioToolDescription("loopover_get_outcome_calibration"),
+    inputSchema: outcomeCalibrationShape,
+  },
+  async ({ owner, repo, windowDays }: any) => {
+    // The schema already rejects a non-positive windowDays, so an omitted window is the only way to full history
+    // -- matching the route's own behaviour when ?windowDays is absent.
+    const query = windowDays ? `?windowDays=${encodeURIComponent(windowDays)}` : "";
+    const payload = await apiGet(`${toolRepoBase(owner, repo)}/outcome-calibration${query}`);
+    return toolResult(`Outcome calibration for ${owner}/${repo}.`, payload);
+  },
+);
+
 registerStdioTool(
   "loopover_get_gate_precision",
   {

test/unit/mcp-cli-maintain-tools.test.ts

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ async function connect() {
   const apiUrl = await startFixtureServer({
     onApiRequest: (request) => {
       const url = request.url ?? "";
-      if (/pending-actions|settings|gate-precision/.test(url)) capturedRequests.push({ url, method: request.method ?? "GET" });
+      if (/pending-actions|settings|gate-precision|outcome-calibration/.test(url)) capturedRequests.push({ url, method: request.method ?? "GET" });
     },
   });
   transport = new StdioClientTransport({
@@ -51,23 +51,25 @@ afterEach(async () => {
 
 const REPO = { owner: "owner", repo: "repo" };
 
-/** Every #6152 tool, with an argument set the fixture serves and a field its real payload carries. */
+/** Every #6152 tool (plus #7758's outcome-calibration sibling), with an argument set the fixture serves
+ *  and a field its real payload carries. */
 const MAINTAIN_TOOLS = [
   { name: "loopover_list_pending_actions", args: REPO, contains: "pa-1" },
   { name: "loopover_decide_pending_action", args: { ...REPO, id: "pa-1", decision: "accept" }, contains: "accepted" },
   { name: "loopover_set_agent_paused", args: { ...REPO, paused: true }, contains: "agentPaused" },
   { name: "loopover_set_action_autonomy", args: { ...REPO, action: "merge", level: "auto" }, contains: "autonomy" },
   { name: "loopover_get_gate_precision", args: REPO, contains: "falsePositiveRate" },
+  { name: "loopover_get_outcome_calibration", args: REPO, contains: "positiveRate" },
 ] as const;
 
 describe("loopover-mcp maintain stdio proxies (#6152)", () => {
-  it("registers all 5 maintain tools in the stdio server tool list", async () => {
+  it("registers all 6 maintain tools in the stdio server tool list", async () => {
     await connect();
     const names = (await client!.listTools()).tools.map((tool) => tool.name);
     for (const tool of MAINTAIN_TOOLS) expect(names).toContain(tool.name);
   });
 
-  it("lists all 5 maintain tools via `loopover-mcp tools --json` with non-empty descriptions", async () => {
+  it("lists all 6 maintain tools via `loopover-mcp tools --json` with non-empty descriptions", async () => {
     await connect();
     const payload = JSON.parse(run(["tools", "--json"])) as { tools: Array<{ name: string; description: string; category?: string }> };
     for (const tool of MAINTAIN_TOOLS) {

test/unit/mcp-tool-rename-aliases.test.ts

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
 // (#6741 registered the loopover_draft_pr_body CLI mirror, taking the count from 76 to 77.)
 // (#6747 registered the loopover_pr_outcome CLI mirror, taking the count from 77 to 78.)
 // (#6980 registered the loopover_explain_review_risk CLI mirror, taking the count from 78 to 79.)
+// (#7758 registered the loopover_get_outcome_calibration stdio tool, taking the count from 79 to 80.)
 import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
 import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";
 import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
@@ -68,14 +69,14 @@ describe("MCP legacy alias retirement (#4777) — discovery invariants", () => {
   });
   afterEach(disconnect);
 
-  it("lists exactly 79 loopover_ tools and zero gittensory_-prefixed aliases", async () => {
+  it("lists exactly 80 loopover_ tools and zero gittensory_-prefixed aliases", async () => {
     const { tools } = await client.listTools();
     const names = tools.map((t) => t.name);
     const primary = names.filter((n) => n.startsWith("loopover_"));
     const legacy = names.filter((n) => n.startsWith("gittensory_"));
-    expect(primary.length).toBe(79);
+    expect(primary.length).toBe(80);
     expect(legacy.length).toBe(0);
-    expect(names.length).toBe(79);
+    expect(names.length).toBe(80);
   });
 
   it("no loopover_ tool's description carries a stale deprecation notice", async () => {
@@ -87,14 +88,14 @@ describe("MCP legacy alias retirement (#4777) — discovery invariants", () => {
     }
   });
 
-  it("`loopover-mcp tools --json` reports the same 79-tool count the live server registers", async () => {
+  it("`loopover-mcp tools --json` reports the same 80-tool count the live server registers", async () => {
     const { tools } = await client.listTools();
     const payload = JSON.parse(run(["tools", "--json"])) as {
       count: number;
       tools: Array<{ name: string }>;
     };
     expect(payload.count).toBe(tools.length);
-    expect(payload.count).toBe(79);
+    expect(payload.count).toBe(80);
     expect([...payload.tools.map((t) => t.name)].sort()).toEqual(
       [...tools.map((t) => t.name)].sort(),
     );