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fix(signals): include queue-growth risk in medium burden tier #466

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JSONbored merged 2 commits into from
Jun 8, 2026
Merged

fix(signals): include queue-growth risk in medium burden tier #466

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fix(signals): include queue-growth risk in medium burden tier
philluiz2323 Jun 7, 2026
6496acf
Merge branch 'main' into fix/burden-forecast-medium-growth-risk
JSONbored Jun 8, 2026
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/signals/engine.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -2952,7 +2952,7 @@ export function buildBurdenForecast(
const stalePrs = openPrs.filter((pr) => daysSince(pr.updatedAt ?? pr.createdAt) > 30).length;
const projectedReviewLoad = clamp(openPrs.length * 3 + updatedRecently * 2 + collisions.summary.highRiskCount * 4 + stalePrs, 0, 100);
const queueGrowthRisk = clamp((openPrs.length - queueHealth.signals.likelyReviewablePullRequests) * 5 + collisions.summary.clusterCount * 7, 0, 100);
const level = projectedReviewLoad >= 80 || queueGrowthRisk >= 80 ? "critical" : projectedReviewLoad >= 55 || queueGrowthRisk >= 55 ? "high" : projectedReviewLoad >= 25 ? "medium" : "low";
const level = projectedReviewLoad >= 80 || queueGrowthRisk >= 80 ? "critical" : projectedReviewLoad >= 55 || queueGrowthRisk >= 55 ? "high" : projectedReviewLoad >= 25 || queueGrowthRisk >= 25 ? "medium" : "low";
const findings: SignalFinding[] = [
...(queueGrowthRisk >= 55
? [
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13 changes: 13 additions & 0 deletions test/unit/burden-forecast.test.ts
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Expand Up @@ -35,6 +35,19 @@ describe("burden forecast builder", () => {
expect(forecast.forecast.duplicateTrend).toBe(4);
});

it("classifies a small unreviewable queue as medium burden via queue-growth risk", () => {
const repo = repoFixture("owner/growth");
// 5 open PRs with no linked issues, updated 10 days ago: not recent (> horizon 7) and not stale (< 30).
// Low projectedReviewLoad, but queueGrowthRisk is driven up by the unreviewable count.
const open = Array.from({ length: 5 }, (_, index) => pr(repo.fullName, index + 1, `open ${index}`, { linkedIssues: [], updatedAt: daysAgo(10) }));
const forecast = buildBurdenForecast(repo, [], open, buildCollisionReport(repo.fullName, [], open), 7);
expect(forecast.forecast.projectedReviewLoad).toBeLessThan(25);
expect(forecast.forecast.queueGrowthRisk).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(25);
expect(forecast.forecast.queueGrowthRisk).toBeLessThan(55);
// queueGrowthRisk must drive the medium tier even when projectedReviewLoad is low.
expect(forecast.level).toBe("medium");
});

it("surfaces a stale PR trend in the forecast findings", () => {
const repo = repoFixture("owner/stale");
const stalePrs = Array.from({ length: 4 }, (_, index) => pr(repo.fullName, index + 1, `stale ${index}`, { updatedAt: daysAgo(31), linkedIssues: [] }));
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