Problem
Epic #8082 closed the loop for TWO knobs and GLOBAL settings: the gate now measures its own judgment against labeled ground truth, replays rule changes against history before they land, and loosens conservatism only where evidence clears a Pareto-floored backtest. That machinery is generic — the corpus carries repo identity in every target key, the knob registry is declarative, the raw-context capture stores the exact inputs AI judgments evaluated — but almost none of that generality is exploited yet. Meanwhile the operator's single biggest wrongness source is now known empirically (retro-label analysis, #8170): decisions that were faithful executions of STALE configuration — rules whose real-world expectations had moved while the config had not. Nothing detects that today; it is discovered through frustration.
Proposal (decompose-first, mirroring #8082's own structure)
Seven tracks, each independently valuable, sequenced by their GitHub relationships (sub-issues + blocked-by — the dependency graph IS the schedule):
- A. Config-drift sentinel — replay the CURRENT live config against the trailing corpus nightly; alert with evidence when an alternative setting Pareto-dominates what is live. Turns stale-config wrongness into a push notification.
- B. Per-repo calibration — repo-scoped corpus slices, per-repo knob overrides under per-repo evidence minimums. Repos earn individually different autonomy.
- C. AI counterfactual backtesting (own sub-epic) — replay prompt/model variants against the raw-context corpus offline, so judgment-layer changes get the same evidence gate as rule changes.
- D. Knob-registry expansion + tightening unification — more knobs under the discipline; fold the legacy tightening loop under the same backtest standard.
- E. Calibration curves — reliability curves (claimed confidence vs empirical precision) that DERIVE thresholds instead of stepping hand-picked ladders.
- F. Reviewer-provider track records — measured per-provider precision, then evidence-weighted reviewer routing.
- G. Public trust surface — publish per-rule precision + a 'verify this review' reproducibility walkthrough; measured accuracy as the product's public asset.
AMS-side expansion continues separately under #8172 (its own epic, already decomposed).
Deliverables
Deliberately none at the epic level — every deliverable lives in a sub-issue. The epic closes when every sub-issue does.
Links & Resources
#8082 (the closed foundation epic), #8172 (AMS sibling), src/services/loosening-knobs.ts + knob-loosening-run.ts (the registry this extends), packages/loopover-engine/src/calibration/** (the shared primitives)
Boundaries
Same discipline as #8082 throughout: nothing autonomous without explicit opt-in flags, gate-authority changes are maintainer-only PRs, every new capability ships default-off or advisory, and no corpus content ever reaches a public surface — aggregates and checksums only.
maintainer-only — epic; work the sub-issues, not this shell.
Problem
Epic #8082 closed the loop for TWO knobs and GLOBAL settings: the gate now measures its own judgment against labeled ground truth, replays rule changes against history before they land, and loosens conservatism only where evidence clears a Pareto-floored backtest. That machinery is generic — the corpus carries repo identity in every target key, the knob registry is declarative, the raw-context capture stores the exact inputs AI judgments evaluated — but almost none of that generality is exploited yet. Meanwhile the operator's single biggest wrongness source is now known empirically (retro-label analysis, #8170): decisions that were faithful executions of STALE configuration — rules whose real-world expectations had moved while the config had not. Nothing detects that today; it is discovered through frustration.
Proposal (decompose-first, mirroring #8082's own structure)
Seven tracks, each independently valuable, sequenced by their GitHub relationships (sub-issues + blocked-by — the dependency graph IS the schedule):
AMS-side expansion continues separately under #8172 (its own epic, already decomposed).
Deliverables
Deliberately none at the epic level — every deliverable lives in a sub-issue. The epic closes when every sub-issue does.
Links & Resources
#8082 (the closed foundation epic), #8172 (AMS sibling), src/services/loosening-knobs.ts + knob-loosening-run.ts (the registry this extends), packages/loopover-engine/src/calibration/** (the shared primitives)
Boundaries
Same discipline as #8082 throughout: nothing autonomous without explicit opt-in flags, gate-authority changes are maintainer-only PRs, every new capability ships default-off or advisory, and no corpus content ever reaches a public surface — aggregates and checksums only.
maintainer-only — epic; work the sub-issues, not this shell.