diff --git a/platform-gitops/infra-components/observability/vm-rules/mctl-telegram-alerts.yaml b/platform-gitops/infra-components/observability/vm-rules/mctl-telegram-alerts.yaml
index 9101163eb..e2a610e23 100644
--- a/platform-gitops/infra-components/observability/vm-rules/mctl-telegram-alerts.yaml
+++ b/platform-gitops/infra-components/observability/vm-rules/mctl-telegram-alerts.yaml
@@ -123,7 +123,10 @@ spec:
         # stall observable; see the "mctl-telegram — Login Flow" Grafana
         # dashboard for the corresponding panels.
         - alert: MctlTelegramLoginSendCodeStalls
-          expr: sum(increase(mctl_login_phone_step_total{result="timeout"}[15m])) >= 2
+          # > 1 rather than >= 2: increase() extrapolates to a float, so an
+          # exactly-two-timeout window can interpolate to e.g. 1.97 and miss a
+          # >= 2 test. > 1 is rounding-safe and identical for integer counters.
+          expr: sum(increase(mctl_login_phone_step_total{result="timeout"}[15m])) > 1
           for: 1m
           labels:
             severity: warning