diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index f1fefea49f..3162d13531 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -95,6 +95,9 @@
     "@lovable.dev/vite-plugin-dev-server-bridge": "1.0.1",
     "@lovable.dev/vite-plugin-hmr-gate": "1.0.1",
     "esbuild": "^0.28.1",
+    "ws": "^8.21.0",
+    "tar": "^7.5.16",
+    "js-yaml": "^4.2.0",
     "lovable-tagger@1.2.0": {
       "esbuild": "^0.28.1"
     },
diff --git a/src/mcp/server.ts b/src/mcp/server.ts
index be4d4bf087..a3b97d51d0 100644
--- a/src/mcp/server.ts
+++ b/src/mcp/server.ts
@@ -1550,6 +1550,13 @@ export class GittensoryMcp {
       loadOrComputeIssueQualityResponse(this.env, repoFullName),
       loadRepoFocusManifest(this.env, repoFullName),
     ]);
+    // Parity with the maintainer gate: only CONFIRMED Gittensor contributors are ever hard-blocked, so the
+    // prediction must know the caller's own confirmed status — otherwise it over-reports `failure` for a
+    // non-confirmed contributor whose synthetic PR trips a blocker. Resolve it the same way the pipeline
+    // does (official Gittensor API → confirmed). The oss-anti-slop pack drops the contributor gate entirely,
+    // so skip the lookup there (keeps the prediction account-free for non-Gittensor adopters).
+    const pack = manifest.gate.pack ?? "gittensor";
+    const confirmedContributor = pack === "oss-anti-slop" ? undefined : (await fetchGittensorContributorSnapshot(input.login)) !== null;
     const verdict = buildPredictedGateVerdict({
       input: {
         repoFullName,
@@ -1565,6 +1572,7 @@ export class GittensoryMcp {
       pullRequests,
       bounties,
       issueQuality: issueQuality?.report,
+      confirmedContributor,
     });
     return {
       summary: `Predicted Gittensory gate for ${repoFullName} under the ${verdict.pack} pack: ${verdict.conclusion}.`,
diff --git a/test/unit/mcp-predict-gate.test.ts b/test/unit/mcp-predict-gate.test.ts
index 20f4dccc7d..ed17058e34 100644
--- a/test/unit/mcp-predict-gate.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/mcp-predict-gate.test.ts
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
 import { InMemoryTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/inMemory.js";
-import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { afterEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
 import { GittensoryMcp } from "../../src/mcp/server";
 import { createSessionForGitHubUser, type AuthIdentity } from "../../src/auth/security";
 import { upsertRepoFocusManifest } from "../../src/signals/focus-manifest-loader";
@@ -46,6 +46,86 @@ describe("MCP gittensory_predict_gate", () => {
     expect((minimal.structuredContent as { pack: string }).pack).toBe("oss-anti-slop");
   });
 
+  // Parity regression (#627-class): under the default `gittensor` pack, only CONFIRMED Gittensor
+  // contributors are ever hard-blocked. The prediction must resolve the caller's confirmed status — if it
+  // doesn't (the bug), a non-confirmed contributor whose synthetic PR trips a blocker is wrongly told
+  // `failure` when the real maintainer gate would return `neutral`.
+  describe("contributor-confirmation parity under the gittensor pack", () => {
+    afterEach(() => vi.unstubAllGlobals());
+
+    function stubGittensorMiners(confirmedLogins: Array<{ login: string; id: number }>) {
+      vi.stubGlobal("fetch", async (input: RequestInfo | URL) => {
+        const url = input.toString();
+        // The miners LIST endpoint decides confirmation; follow-up detail/prs/issues calls are best-effort.
+        if (/\/miners$/.test(url)) {
+          return Response.json(confirmedLogins.map((m) => ({ githubId: m.id, githubUsername: m.login })));
+        }
+        return Response.json([]);
+      });
+    }
+
+    it("stays NEUTRAL for a non-confirmed contributor even when a blocker fires", async () => {
+      const env = createTestEnv();
+      await upsertRepositoryFromGitHub(env, { name: "widgets", full_name: "acme/widgets" });
+      // gittensor pack, linked-issue blocks; the contributor supplies no linked issue → blocker fires.
+      await upsertRepoFocusManifest(env, "acme/widgets", { gate: { pack: "gittensor", linkedIssue: "block" } });
+      stubGittensorMiners([]); // miner1 is NOT a confirmed Gittensor contributor
+      const client = await connect(env);
+
+      const result = await client.callTool({
+        name: "gittensory_predict_gate",
+        arguments: { login: "miner1", owner: "acme", repo: "widgets", title: "Add retry to upload client", linkedIssues: [] },
+      });
+      expect(result.isError).toBeFalsy();
+      const data = result.structuredContent as { pack: string; conclusion: string; confirmedContributor: boolean | undefined };
+      expect(data.pack).toBe("gittensor");
+      expect(data.conclusion).toBe("neutral");
+      expect(data.confirmedContributor).toBe(false);
+    });
+
+    it("predicts FAILURE for a confirmed contributor when the same blocker fires", async () => {
+      const env = createTestEnv();
+      await upsertRepositoryFromGitHub(env, { name: "widgets", full_name: "acme/widgets" });
+      await upsertRepoFocusManifest(env, "acme/widgets", { gate: { pack: "gittensor", linkedIssue: "block" } });
+      stubGittensorMiners([{ login: "miner1", id: 4242 }]); // miner1 IS confirmed
+      const client = await connect(env);
+
+      const result = await client.callTool({
+        name: "gittensory_predict_gate",
+        arguments: { login: "miner1", owner: "acme", repo: "widgets", title: "Add retry to upload client", linkedIssues: [] },
+      });
+      expect(result.isError).toBeFalsy();
+      const data = result.structuredContent as { conclusion: string; confirmedContributor: boolean | undefined; blockers: Array<{ code: string }> };
+      expect(data.confirmedContributor).toBe(true);
+      expect(data.conclusion).toBe("failure");
+      expect(data.blockers.some((b) => b.code === "missing_linked_issue")).toBe(true);
+    });
+
+    it("treats a Gittensor API failure as non-confirmed (fail-safe NEUTRAL, never a false FAILURE)", async () => {
+      const env = createTestEnv();
+      await upsertRepositoryFromGitHub(env, { name: "widgets", full_name: "acme/widgets" });
+      // No explicit pack → defaults to the gittensor pack, which still resolves confirmed status via the API.
+      await upsertRepoFocusManifest(env, "acme/widgets", { gate: { linkedIssue: "block" } });
+      // The confirmation lookup is the only network call on the prediction path (the URL is a fixed constant
+      // base; the login is never interpolated into it — it is filtered client-side — so there is no SSRF
+      // surface). When that call fails/times out, fetchGittensorContributorSnapshot resolves to null, so the
+      // contributor is treated as non-confirmed → the gate stays neutral rather than wrongly blocking them.
+      vi.stubGlobal("fetch", async () => {
+        throw new Error("network down");
+      });
+      const client = await connect(env);
+
+      const result = await client.callTool({
+        name: "gittensory_predict_gate",
+        arguments: { login: "miner1", owner: "acme", repo: "widgets", title: "Add retry to upload client", linkedIssues: [] },
+      });
+      expect(result.isError).toBeFalsy();
+      const data = result.structuredContent as { conclusion: string; confirmedContributor: boolean | undefined };
+      expect(data.confirmedContributor).toBe(false);
+      expect(data.conclusion).toBe("neutral");
+    });
+  });
+
   it("is repo-scoped: a session cannot predict against an inaccessible repo", async () => {
     const env = createTestEnv();
     await upsertRepositoryFromGitHub(env, { name: "private-roadmap", full_name: "victimco/private-roadmap", private: true, owner: { login: "victimco" } });