diff --git a/src/scoring/preview.ts b/src/scoring/preview.ts
index a0e8229485..7d8cb5d663 100644
--- a/src/scoring/preview.ts
+++ b/src/scoring/preview.ts
@@ -70,6 +70,12 @@ export type LinkedIssueMultiplierContext = {
   warnings?: string[] | undefined;
 };
 
+const PROJECTED_SOLVED_BY_PULL_REQUEST_VALIDATION = Symbol("projectedSolvedByPullRequestValidation");
+
+type ProjectedLinkedIssueMultiplierContext = LinkedIssueMultiplierContext & {
+  [PROJECTED_SOLVED_BY_PULL_REQUEST_VALIDATION]?: true;
+};
+
 export type LinkedIssueMultiplierDecision = {
   mode: "none" | "standard" | "maintainer";
   status: LinkedIssueMultiplierStatus;
@@ -713,13 +719,18 @@ function decideLinkedIssueMultiplier(
     };
   }
 
-  const status = context?.status ?? (solvedByPullRequests.length > 0 ? "validated" : issueNumbers.length > 0 ? "raw" : "unavailable");
+  const projectedSolvedByPullRequestValidation = (context as ProjectedLinkedIssueMultiplierContext | undefined)?.[PROJECTED_SOLVED_BY_PULL_REQUEST_VALIDATION] === true;
+  const requestedStatus = context?.status ?? (solvedByPullRequests.length > 0 ? "validated" : issueNumbers.length > 0 ? "raw" : "unavailable");
+  const hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence = solvedByPullRequests.length > 0 || projectedSolvedByPullRequestValidation;
+  const status = requestedStatus === "validated" && !hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence ? (issueNumbers.length > 0 ? "raw" : "unavailable") : requestedStatus;
   const source = context?.source ?? (status === "unavailable" ? "missing" : "user_supplied");
   const branchEligible = !(branchEligibility.required && branchEligibility.status === "ineligible");
-  const eligible = status === "validated" && branchEligible;
+  const eligible = status === "validated" && hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence && branchEligible;
   const reason =
     branchEligible || status !== "validated"
-      ? context?.reason ?? linkedIssueReason(status, source, issueNumbers, solvedByPullRequests)
+      ? status === requestedStatus
+        ? context?.reason ?? linkedIssueReason(status, source, issueNumbers, solvedByPullRequests)
+        : linkedIssueReason(status, source, issueNumbers, solvedByPullRequests)
       : "Branch eligibility is confirmed ineligible; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
   return {
     mode,
@@ -740,18 +751,19 @@ function withValidatedLinkedIssueScenario(input: ScorePreviewInput): ScorePrevie
   if (mode === "maintainer") return input;
   const issueNumbers = uniquePositiveInts(input.linkedIssueContext?.issueNumbers ?? []);
   const solvedByPullRequests = uniquePositiveInts(input.linkedIssueContext?.solvedByPullRequests ?? []);
+  const linkedIssueContext: ProjectedLinkedIssueMultiplierContext = {
+    ...input.linkedIssueContext,
+    status: "validated",
+    source: input.linkedIssueContext?.source ?? "user_supplied",
+    issueNumbers,
+    solvedByPullRequests,
+    warnings: [],
+    [PROJECTED_SOLVED_BY_PULL_REQUEST_VALIDATION]: true,
+  };
   return {
     ...input,
     linkedIssueMode: "standard",
-    linkedIssueContext: {
-      ...input.linkedIssueContext,
-      status: "validated",
-      source: input.linkedIssueContext?.source ?? "user_supplied",
-      issueNumbers,
-      solvedByPullRequests,
-      reason: "Projection assumes linked issue context is solved-by-PR validated.",
-      warnings: [],
-    },
+    linkedIssueContext,
   };
 }
 
diff --git a/test/unit/eligibility-scenarios.test.ts b/test/unit/eligibility-scenarios.test.ts
index 5cc877f2b4..27a14a756a 100644
--- a/test/unit/eligibility-scenarios.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/eligibility-scenarios.test.ts
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ describe("eligible branch with validated linked issue", () => {
       status: "validated",
       source: "official_mirror",
       issueNumbers: [42],
-      solvedByPullRequests: [],
+      solvedByPullRequests: [101],
     },
     branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" },
   });
@@ -309,6 +309,20 @@ describe("branch-eligibility-missing — metadata not provided", () => {
     const codes = result.blockedBy.map((b) => b.code);
     expect(codes).toContain("branch_eligibility_missing");
   });
+
+  it("keeps eligibility unconfirmed when the link is validated but branch metadata is missing", () => {
+    const validatedLinkMissingBranch = preview({
+      linkedIssueMode: "standard",
+      linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "official_mirror", issueNumbers: [10], solvedByPullRequests: [11] },
+    });
+    const plan = deriveEligibilityPlan(validatedLinkMissingBranch);
+    expect(plan).toMatchObject({
+      eligible: false,
+      linkedIssueStatus: "validated",
+      branchEligibilityStatus: "unknown",
+    });
+    expect(plan.publicSummary).toMatch(/not yet validated|validation is needed/i);
+  });
 });
 
 // ── Public/private sanitizer tests ────────────────────────────────────────
diff --git a/test/unit/scoring.test.ts b/test/unit/scoring.test.ts
index e18eabf148..47bd0a924a 100644
--- a/test/unit/scoring.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/scoring.test.ts
@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import { afterEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
 import { getLatestScoringModelSnapshot } from "../../src/db/repositories";
 import { detectActiveModel, parsePythonNumberConstants, refreshScoringModelSnapshot } from "../../src/scoring/model";
 import { buildScorePreview, makeScorePreviewRecord } from "../../src/scoring/preview";
+import type { ScorePreviewInput } from "../../src/scoring/preview";
 import type { RepositoryRecord, ScoringModelSnapshotRecord } from "../../src/types";
 import { createTestEnv } from "../helpers/d1";
 
@@ -354,6 +355,19 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
       snapshot,
       input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "github_cache", issueNumbers: [11] } },
     });
+    const validatedWithoutIssueOrSolver = buildScorePreview({
+      repo,
+      snapshot,
+      input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "github_cache" } },
+    });
+    const forgedProjectedValidatedWithoutSolverNumber = buildScorePreview({
+      repo,
+      snapshot,
+      input: {
+        ...baseInput,
+        linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "user_supplied", issueNumbers: [14], projectedSolvedByPullRequestValidation: true } as unknown as ScorePreviewInput["linkedIssueContext"],
+      },
+    });
     const rawByDefault = buildScorePreview({
       repo,
       snapshot,
@@ -379,7 +393,9 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     expect(raw.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "raw", eligible: false, appliedMultiplier: 1 });
     expect(raw.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1);
     expect(raw.blockedBy).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([expect.objectContaining({ code: "linked_issue_unvalidated", severity: "context" })]));
-    expect(raw.scenarioPreviews.find((scenario) => scenario.name === "linkedIssueFixed")?.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
+    const rawFixedScenario = raw.scenarioPreviews.find((scenario) => scenario.name === "linkedIssueFixed");
+    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
+    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier.reason).toBe("Linked issue context is solved-by-PR validated for issue(s) #7.");
     expect(validated.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", eligible: true, solvedByPullRequests: [101], appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
     expect(validated.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1.33);
     expect(invalid.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "invalid", eligible: false, appliedMultiplier: 1 });
@@ -388,7 +404,10 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     expect(plausible.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "plausible", eligible: false, appliedMultiplier: 1 });
     expect(plausible.warnings.join(" ")).toMatch(/plausible.*not solved-by-PR/i);
     expect(defaultValidated.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", source: "user_supplied", solvedByPullRequests: [110], appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
-    expect(validatedWithoutSolverNumber.linkedIssueMultiplier.reason).toMatch(/validated for issue\(s\) #11\./i);
+    expect(validatedWithoutSolverNumber.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "raw", eligible: false, appliedMultiplier: 1 });
+    expect(validatedWithoutSolverNumber.linkedIssueMultiplier.reason).toMatch(/no solved-by-PR validation/i);
+    expect(validatedWithoutIssueOrSolver.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "unavailable", eligible: false, issueNumbers: [], appliedMultiplier: 1 });
+    expect(forgedProjectedValidatedWithoutSolverNumber.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "raw", eligible: false, issueNumbers: [14], appliedMultiplier: 1 });
     expect(rawByDefault.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "raw", source: "user_supplied", issueNumbers: [12], appliedMultiplier: 1 });
     expect(unavailableByDefault.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "unavailable", source: "missing", issueNumbers: [], appliedMultiplier: 1 });
     expect(malformedNumbers.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ issueNumbers: [13], solvedByPullRequests: [120] });