diff --git a/packages/gittensory-engine/src/goal-model.ts b/packages/gittensory-engine/src/goal-model.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..1747546c1b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/gittensory-engine/src/goal-model.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+import type { MinerGoalSpec } from "./miner-goal-spec.js";
+
+export type GoalModelInput = {
+  candidatePaths: string[];
+  candidateLabels: string[];
+  goalSpec: MinerGoalSpec;
+};
+
+function normalizeLabels(labels: readonly string[]): string[] {
+  return labels
+    .filter((label): label is string => typeof label === "string")
+    .map((label) => label.trim().toLowerCase())
+    .filter(Boolean);
+}
+
+function normalizePathForMatch(path: string): string {
+  return String(path ?? "").replace(/\\/g, "/").toLowerCase();
+}
+
+function compileGlobMatcher(pattern: string): (path: string) => boolean {
+  const normalizedPattern = normalizePathForMatch(pattern);
+  if (!normalizedPattern) return () => false;
+  let regex = "^";
+  for (let i = 0; i < normalizedPattern.length; i++) {
+    const ch = normalizedPattern[i];
+    const next = normalizedPattern[i + 1];
+    if (ch === "*" && next === "*") {
+      const afterDoubleStar = normalizedPattern[i + 2];
+      if (afterDoubleStar === "/") {
+        regex += "(?:.*/)?";
+        i += 2;
+      } else {
+        regex += ".*";
+        i++;
+      }
+    } else if (ch === "*") {
+      regex += "[^/]*";
+    } else if (ch === "?") {
+      regex += "[^/]";
+    } else if (/[.+^$(){}|[\]\\]/.test(ch ?? "")) {
+      regex += "\\" + ch;
+    } else {
+      regex += ch;
+    }
+  }
+  regex += "$";
+  const compiled = new RegExp(regex);
+  return (path: string) => {
+    const normalized = normalizePathForMatch(path);
+    if (!normalized) return false;
+    return compiled.test(normalized);
+  };
+}
+
+function matchesAnyLabel(candidateLabels: readonly string[], goalLabels: readonly string[]): boolean {
+  if (goalLabels.length === 0) return false;
+  const normalizedCandidate = normalizeLabels(candidateLabels);
+  const normalizedGoal = normalizeLabels(goalLabels);
+  return normalizedGoal.some((label) => normalizedCandidate.includes(label));
+}
+
+function matchesAnyPath(candidatePaths: readonly string[], goalPaths: readonly string[]): boolean {
+  if (goalPaths.length === 0) return false;
+  return goalPaths.some((pattern) => {
+    const matcher = compileGlobMatcher(pattern);
+    return candidatePaths.some((path) => matcher(path));
+  });
+}
+
+export function computeLaneFit(input: GoalModelInput): number {
+  const { candidatePaths, candidateLabels, goalSpec } = input;
+  if (matchesAnyPath(candidatePaths, goalSpec.blockedPaths)) {
+    return 0;
+  }
+  if (matchesAnyLabel(candidateLabels, goalSpec.blockedLabels)) {
+    return 0;
+  }
+  const hasPathCriteria = goalSpec.wantedPaths.length > 0;
+  const hasLabelCriteria = goalSpec.preferredLabels.length > 0;
+  if (!hasPathCriteria && !hasLabelCriteria) {
+    return 0.5;
+  }
+  const pathMatches = hasPathCriteria && matchesAnyPath(candidatePaths, goalSpec.wantedPaths);
+  const labelMatches = hasLabelCriteria && matchesAnyLabel(candidateLabels, goalSpec.preferredLabels);
+  if (!pathMatches && !labelMatches) {
+    return 0;
+  }
+  const activeDimensions = (hasPathCriteria ? 1 : 0) + (hasLabelCriteria ? 1 : 0);
+  const matchedDimensions = (pathMatches ? 1 : 0) + (labelMatches ? 1 : 0);
+  return matchedDimensions / activeDimensions;
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/packages/gittensory-engine/src/index.ts b/packages/gittensory-engine/src/index.ts
index 342f9dd36d..e0e45be9d3 100644
--- a/packages/gittensory-engine/src/index.ts
+++ b/packages/gittensory-engine/src/index.ts
@@ -35,6 +35,9 @@ export {
 } from "./miner-goal-lane-fit.js";
 export { computeOpportunityCompetition } from "./opportunity-competition.js";
 export {
+  computeLaneFit,
+  type GoalModelInput,
+} from "./goal-model.js";
   classifyContributorFit,
   type ContributorFit,
   type ContributorFitCheck,
diff --git a/packages/gittensory-engine/test/goal-model.test.ts b/packages/gittensory-engine/test/goal-model.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..3deb4a18a7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/gittensory-engine/test/goal-model.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+import { test } from "node:test";
+import assert from "node:assert/strict";
+
+import { DEFAULT_MINER_GOAL_SPEC, type MinerGoalSpec } from "../dist/miner-goal-spec.js";
+import { computeLaneFit, type GoalModelInput } from "../dist/goal-model.js";
+
+function baseSpec(overrides: Partial<MinerGoalSpec> = {}): MinerGoalSpec {
+  return { ...DEFAULT_MINER_GOAL_SPEC, ...overrides };
+}
+
+function input(overrides: Partial<GoalModelInput> = {}): GoalModelInput {
+  return {
+    candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+    candidateLabels: ["bug"],
+    goalSpec: baseSpec(),
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0 when a candidate path matches a blockedPath (short-circuit, ignores preferredLanes)", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["secrets/api-keys.ts"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ blockedPaths: ["secrets/**"], wantedPaths: ["src/**"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 0);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0 when a candidate label matches a blockedLabel", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidateLabels: ["do-not-pick"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ blockedLabels: ["do-not-pick"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 0);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0.5 when wantedPaths and preferredLabels are both empty (neutral default)", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(input());
+  assert.equal(result, 0.5);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0 when wantedPaths/preferredLabels are set but no match", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["docs/readme.md"],
+      candidateLabels: [],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 0);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when both wantedPaths and preferredLabels fully match", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: ["bug"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0.5 when only one of two preferred criteria matches (path match, label miss)", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: ["unrelated"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 0.5);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 0.5 when only one of two preferred criteria matches (label match, path miss)", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["docs/readme.md"],
+      candidateLabels: ["bug"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**"], preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 0.5);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when multiple wantedPaths are set and one matches", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: [],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**", "lib/**", "packages/**"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when multiple preferredLabels are set and one matches", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: [],
+      candidateLabels: ["bug"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ preferredLabels: ["bug", "feature", "enhancement"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when both multi-entry lists have at least one match", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["lib/utils.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: ["enhancement"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({
+        wantedPaths: ["src/**", "lib/**", "packages/**"],
+        preferredLabels: ["bug", "feature", "enhancement"],
+      }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when only wantedPaths is set and matches", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: [],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit returns 1.0 when only preferredLabels is set and matches", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: [],
+      candidateLabels: ["bug"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit treats label matching case-insensitively", () => {
+  const result = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidateLabels: ["BUG"],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ preferredLabels: ["bug"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(result, 1);
+});
+
+test("computeLaneFit ** glob matches both top-level and nested paths", () => {
+  const topLevel = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: [],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**/*.ts"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(topLevel, 1);
+
+  const nested = computeLaneFit(
+    input({
+      candidatePaths: ["src/nested/app.ts"],
+      candidateLabels: [],
+      goalSpec: baseSpec({ wantedPaths: ["src/**/*.ts"] }),
+    }),
+  );
+  assert.equal(nested, 1);
+});
\ No newline at end of file